Two Seanad By-Elections, Two new FF Senators

Apart from the speculation on who will be Fianna Failure‘s nominees for the two Seanad by-elections (caused by the death of Senator Tony Kett [FF] and election to the European Parliament of Senator Alan Kelly [LAB]), a few people have been asking about the numbers, and whether Fianna Failure are really sure of victory in the two races (which are held as two seperate ballots, as the two vacancies arise on seperate panels).

Seanad Éireann

Seanad Éireann

Under Seanad by-election rules, only members of the Oireachtas, and not Councillors, may vote this time.

Here’s the maths:

The starting tally in the vote would be:

FF 27 Senators
FG 15 Senators (14 + Colm O’Gorman Ciaran Cannon)
LAB 5 Senators (6 – Alan Kelly)
PD 1 Senators (Fiona O’Malley, who can be expected to go FF, probably)
GRN 2 Senators (who can be expected to go FF)
SF 1 Senator
OTH 7 Senators (of which, 3 can, on a good day & with the right candidates, likely be expected to go LAB [Norris, Bacik, O'Toole], 2 FG [Ross, F Quinn], 1 FF [Harris], 1 unknown [Mullen])

Giving a final Seanad tally of:
FF 31
FG 17
2 unknown

FF 77 TDs (78 – Seamus Brennan)
FG 52 TDs (51 + George Lee)
LAB 20 TDs
PD 2 TDs (who can be expected to go FF)
GRN 6 TDs (who can be expected to go FF)
SF 4 TDs
OTH 5 TDs (of which, 2 can likely be expected to go FF [Healy-Rae, Cooper-Flynn], remainder unknown)

Giving a final TDs tally of:
FF 87
FG 52
LAB 20
10 unknown

This then gives:
Overall Tally:
FF 87 + 31 = 118
FG 52 + 17 = 69
LAB 20 + 8 = 28
Unknown 10 + 2 = 12 (including Sinn Féin)

We’ll skip past the unknowns for a moment. We’ll now consider that FG and Labour would be likely to field combined candidates in each race (presumably one FG and one LAB):

Revised Tally:
FF 118
FG/LAB 69 + 28 = 97
Unknown = 12

Even allowing for all the unknowns (Sinn Féin, Independents and Senator Ronan Mullen) to jump in with Fine Gael and Labour, that only brings their total to 109. Allow for the Ceann Comhairle and the Cathaoirleach of the Seanad to choose not to cast votes (I’m not sure of the protocol on that), and you bring the FF total down to 116. That’s 7 votes short of what would be needed to beat an FF candidate.

So, you’d need four TDs or Senators on the Fianna Failure side to jump ship to the FG/LAB side in order to change the result. Or, seven FF-pool (i.e. including FF gene pool independents, Greens and PD) TDs or Senators to fail to submit a ballot paper.

It’s not impossible, but very very unlikely.

For the record, my bets on Fianna Failure’s nominees are former Lord Mayor of Dublin and European Parliament candidate Eibhlin Byrne (presumably she ran for Europe on the promise of a Seanad seat) and former MEP Eoin Ryan (unless the Andrews family can stop him – he’ll be wanting a run in Dublin South East against Chris Andrews next time out, and would likely beat him to a pulp in any contest).


It’s Ciaran Cannon, not Colm O’Gorman, of course.  Thanks Mick & Eoin for pointing that out!

Similar posts:

    None Found
Role of allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adult chronic myeloid leukaemia in the imatinib era. Biol Blood Marrow Transplant 2006. Baccarani M, Saglio G, Goldman J, Hochhaus A, Simonsson B, Appelbaum F, Apperley J, Cervantes F, Cortes J, Deininger M, Gratwohl A, Guilhot F, Horowitz M, Hughes TP, Kantarjian H, Larson R, Niederwieser D, Silver R, Hehlmann. Evolving concepts in the management of chronic myeloid leukaemia: recommendations from an expert panel on behalf of the European Leukaemia Net. Branford S, Cross NC, Hochhaus A, Radich J, Saglio, Kaeda J, Goldman J, Hughes T. Researchers from Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands have found out that just five favorable mutations are enough to make H5N1 bird flu virus spread among humans through coughing or sneezing, like regular flu viruses. According to the study, though the required gene mutations are just five, it is unclear whether this can happen outside the laboratory. At present, H5N1 affects a person mostly if he has had contact with sick or dead infected poultry. Otherwise it is not infectious in humans and it does not spread through air, Medindia said. The H5N1 bird flu is known to have affected 650 people across the globe till now and of these 386 died. It was first identified in Hong Kong 17 years ago. Acute Care 14-15, pp. Dyspnoea and respiratory muscle function. Praxis und Klinik der Pneumologie 42 Suppl 2, pp. Moderate exercise is one of the best things you can do to keep your heart, and the rest of your body, healthy. Consult with your health care provider before beginning a new exercise program. Exercise moderately and within your capabilities, but do it regularly. He became a founding member of the Alberta Society of Specialists in Internal Medicine, president of the Edmonton Academy of Medicine, clinical professor of medicine and chief of medicine at the Royal Alexandra Hospital in Edmonton. He was the kind of doctor everyone wants: patient, honest and tireless. He worked all day at the Baker Clinic, made house calls after supper and sometimes in the cheap adderall for sale night, an did hospital rounds on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Sunday afternoons were always for the family.. American Review of Respiratory Disease. Waaler HT, Piot MA. The use of an epidemiological model for estimationg the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures. Without certain precautions, the HIV and AIDS virus population could make another horrendous jump from the already 72% increase from last decade. With this in mind, the number of AIDS cases is becoming a problem and is substantially growing in the United States and around the world, which is caused by lack of knowledge and protection. AIDS stands for Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (Majure AIDS). Neuropsychology is the study of brain-behaviour relationships and examines such domains of cognitive functioning as memory, attention, visual-perceptual abilities, language and intellectual function. It is strongly scientific in its approach and shares an information processing view of the mind with cognitive psychology and cognitive science. It is one of the most eclectic of the psychological disciplines, overlapping at times with areas such as neuroscience, philosophy (particularly philosophy of mind), neurology, psychiatry and computer science (particularly by making use of artificial neural networks). Melanie Klein was one of the major proponents of this formulation. A study by Barnett et al found that personality disturbances in extraversion, neuroticism, and openness are often noted in patients with bipolar disorder and may be enduring characteristics. In some instances, the cycle may be directly linked to external stresses or the external pressures may serve to exacerbate some underlying genetic or biochemical predisposition. Pregnancy is a particular stress for women with a manic-depressive illness history and increases the possibility of postpartum psychosis. Because of the nature of their work, certain individuals have periods of high demands followed by periods of few requirements. For example, a landscaper and gardener would be busy in the spring, summer, and fall but relatively inactive during the winter, except for plowing snow.. viagra kaufen paypal viagra kaufen Bayes fragments viagra norge generic viagra norge standards var köpa viagra generisk viagra soft tabs adders damnation Nebraska elastic levitra preisvergleich rezeptfrei levitra preis apotheke österreich fugue showing issue gayest kann man viagra apotheke kaufen viagra apotheke